- The Rockies are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland
- Watch the game on SportsNet RM
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (-165) on Thursday, April 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Denver.
The Rockies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Rockies Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 1-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 2-4 ATS.
Nationals vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | O 11 -110 | +140 |
| Rockies | -1.5 +110 | U 11 -110 | -165 |
Nationals vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 100% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- C.J. Cron has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+4.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Sean Bouchard has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Charlie Blackmon has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Brian Serven has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- C.J. Cron has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Rockies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Elehuris Montero | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elias Diaz | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Rockies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elehuris Montero | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Elias Diaz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Rockies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Cron | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Elehuris Montero | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elias Diaz | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
Rockies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+14.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 49 away games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 79 of their last 137 games (+13.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 46 games at home (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 1-5 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -66.13% ROI).
- 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -57.5% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 12.69% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -17.69% ROI
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 2-4 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -34.81% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -8.33% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -4.32% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .737 (160 Total Bases / 217 ABs) on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .691 (248 Total Bases / 359 ABs) on fastballs since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .437 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 51% (21/41) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed an OPS of 1.209 (22 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .697 — second Percentile.
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
28 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since last season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 6% (2/33) against Kyle Freeland this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (287/514) of opposing batters since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Kyle Freeland threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (217/399) of opposing batters right-handed hitters in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 68% — second Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Nationals are just 17-32 (.347) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 78-45 (.634) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Nationals were just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 106-12 (.898) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Rockies are just 42-24 (.636) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rockies were just 33-31 (.516) when totaling 10 or more hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Rockies are just 55-110 (.333) on the road since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Rockies were just 41-24 (.631) when scoring 5 or more runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .215 (107 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .224 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .439 (107 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Rockies batted .283 at home in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rockies hitters have an OPS of .803 (3,106 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 30% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Rockies pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Rockies pitchers in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers had an ERA of 5.30 (740.0 IP) at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Rockies pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rockies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Knee, D15
- Randal Grichuk (Rockies): Hernia, D10
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Bard (Rockies): Anxiety, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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