Nationals vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 28, 2023, 3:33 PM
  • The Nationals are -110 favorites vs the Royals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
  • Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Washington Nationals (-110) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-110) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Nationals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Nationals vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Nationals are 23-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 19-34 ATS.

Nationals vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals-1.5 +150O 9 +100-110
Royals +1.5 -185U 9 -120-110

Nationals vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+14.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+12.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+11.30 Units / 103% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Royals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Pratto 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Michael Chavis 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Joey Meneses 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Alex Call 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000

Royals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Pratto 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
Michael Chavis 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
Joey Meneses 1.5 +165 1.5 -225
Alex Call 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 -275 0.5 +200

Royals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Pratto 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Michael Chavis 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Joey Meneses 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Alex Call 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +180 0.5 -250

Royals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mackenzie Gore 5.5 -105 5.5 -125
Daniel Lynch 3.5 -165 3.5 +130
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 46 games (+16.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 34 games (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 41 games (+3.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.40 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.35 Units / 21% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 33-19 against the Run Line (+12.35 Units / 18.78% ROI).

  • 23-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 10.53% ROI
  • 23-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -7.85% ROI
  • 25-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 19-34 against the Run Line (-20.1 Units / -31.19% ROI).

  • 15-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -33.58% ROI
  • 24-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -10.01% ROI
  • 27-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.86% ROI

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .143 (7 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 97th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 27 of 223 batters (12%) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .122 (6-for-49) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.

75% of MacKenzie Gore’s fastball strikeouts are elevatedthis season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 54% — 92nd Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Daniel Lynch has allowed a slugging percentage of .522 (93 Total Bases / 178 ABs) on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: .369 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 48% (194/401) against Daniel Lynch since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (55/105) against Daniel Lynch on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 49% (172/352) against Daniel Lynch against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Nationals are just 12-23 (.343) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.

The Nationals are just 25-47 (.347) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Nationals are just 25-117 (.176) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Nationals are just 4-5 (.444) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Royals are just 3-8 (.273) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .679.

The Royals are just 7-21 (.250) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.

The Royals are just 15-33 (.312) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Royals are just 5-59 (.078) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have 81 extra-base hits out of 306 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals hitters have 88 extra-base hits out of 313 total hits (just 28%) in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Nationals hitters have just 262 strikeouts in 1,339 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .282 (1,451 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 25% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

The Royals have won just 43% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Royals have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Royals pitchers have walked 176 of 1,884 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have walked 14 of 104 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have won just 0% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Royals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Isbel (Royals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
  • Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
  • Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D15
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.