Nationals vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 21

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 21, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Twins are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
  • Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle
  • Watch the game on WFTC29

The Washington Nationals (+180) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Nationals vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Nationals are 5-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 11-8 ATS.

Nationals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -115O 7.5 -105+180
Twins -1.5 -105U 7.5 -115-225

Nationals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Nationals vs Twins and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)

Twins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Trevor Larnach 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Joey Meneses 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Dominic Smith 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Stone Garrett 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Twins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
Trevor Larnach 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Joey Meneses 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Dominic Smith 0.5 -135 0.5 +105
Stone Garrett 0.5 -130 0.5 +100

Twins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +155 0.5 -200
Trevor Larnach 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Joey Meneses 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Dominic Smith 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Stone Garrett 0.5 +260 0.5 -350

Twins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Mahle 5.5 +100 5.5 -130
Trevor Williams 4.5 +100 4.5 -130
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.50 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+3.65 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.90 Units / 45% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 10-8 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 8.67% ROI).

  • 5-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -27.22% ROI
  • 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -3.04% ROI
  • 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -2.76% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 11-8 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 12.77% ROI).

  • 11-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 14.38% ROI
  • 7-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -18.96% ROI
  • 10-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 11.06% ROI

Trevor Williams has struck out just 4% (1/23) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (17/139) against Trevor Williams this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Williams struck out just 9% (13/148) of left-handed batters he faced in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 10% (6/61) against Trevor Williams this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tyler Mahle has allowed an OPS of .931 (25 PA’s) with two-strikes — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .510 — third Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (30/173) against Tyler Mahle since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% (58/207) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 3% (1/30) against Tyler Mahle this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 15% — third Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Nationals are just 2-6 (.250) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .732.

The Nationals are just 18-105 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Nationals are just 60-102 (.370) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 110-13 (.894) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 13-32 (.289) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .298 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Nationals hitters have just 37 strikeouts in 246 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have just 434 strikeouts in 2,193 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 85 total hits (just 22%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Twins are batting just .195 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Twins hitters have an OPS of just .604 (127 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.

Twins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (127 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Twins hitters are slugging .638 with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have walked 45 of 676 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Twins pitchers have walked 10 of 169 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Twins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
  • James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60

Bet now on Nationals vs Twins and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM first bet offer for $1000
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.