- The Twins are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle
- Watch the game on WFTC29
The Washington Nationals (+180) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Nationals vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 5-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 11-8 ATS.
Nationals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 7.5 -105 | +180 |
| Twins | -1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -115 | -225 |
Nationals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Twins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Twins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Twins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Trevor Williams | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.50 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+3.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 39% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 10-8 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 8.67% ROI).
- 5-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -27.22% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -3.04% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -2.76% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 11-8 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 12.77% ROI).
- 11-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 14.38% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -18.96% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 11.06% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has struck out just 4% (1/23) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (17/139) against Trevor Williams this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams struck out just 9% (13/148) of left-handed batters he faced in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 10% (6/61) against Trevor Williams this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Mahle has allowed an OPS of .931 (25 PA’s) with two-strikes — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .510 — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (30/173) against Tyler Mahle since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% (58/207) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 3% (1/30) against Tyler Mahle this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 15% — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Nationals are just 2-6 (.250) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Nationals are just 18-105 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Nationals are just 60-102 (.370) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 110-13 (.894) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-32 (.289) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .298 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Nationals hitters have just 37 strikeouts in 246 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 434 strikeouts in 2,193 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 85 total hits (just 22%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .195 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .604 (127 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (127 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Twins hitters are slugging .638 with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 45 of 676 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 10 of 169 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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