- The Twins are -300 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Chad Kuhl
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Washington Nationals (+250) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-300) on Saturday, April 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Twins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 6-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 11-9 ATS.
Nationals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -125 | O 7 +100 | +250 |
| Twins | -2.5 +105 | U 7 -120 | -300 |
Nationals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.85 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+7.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 62% ROI)
Twins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Twins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
Twins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Twins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Chad Kuhl | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+3.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 11-8 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 12.72% ROI).
- 6-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -15% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -8.15% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 2.14% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 11-9 against the Run Line (+1.8 Units / 7.42% ROI).
- 11-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 3.5% ROI
- 7-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -22.97% ROI
- 11-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 15.07% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chad Kuhl has an ERA of 7.88 (64.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 3.90 — first Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has allowed a slugging percentage of .560 (223 Total Bases / 398 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .386 — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 35 of Chad Kuhl’s 266 elevated fastballs out of the zone (13%) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 0 Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has located his fastball up for a strike just 47% (319/676) of the time since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 35% (18/51) against Pablo Lopez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 40% (29/72) against Pablo Lopez this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (19/40) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .089 (4-for-45) against Pablo Lopez’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Nationals are just 3-6 (.333) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Nationals are just 11-63 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Nationals are just 19-105 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .579.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 5-0 (1.000) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Twins are just 11-39 (.220) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 127 strikeouts in 712 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 434 strikeouts in 2,195 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .573 (464 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Nationals hitters have put 43% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging just .131 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Twins are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (127 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 157 of their 743 plate appearances (21%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 50% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 45 of 710 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 10 of 178 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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