- The Twins are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Watch the game on BSN
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-275) on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Nationals vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 7-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 11-10 ATS.
Nationals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -115 | +220 |
| Twins | -1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -105 | -275 |
Nationals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 73.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.45 Units / 68% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.95 Units / 73% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.45 Units / 78% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 54% ROI)
Twins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Twins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Twins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 3.5 -250 | 3.5 +195 |
| Bailey Ober | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+6.30 Units / 79% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+5.10 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 21 games (+0.35 Units / 1% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 12-8 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 17.52% ROI).
- 7-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -1.25% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -3.2% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -3.16% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 11-10 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 1.36% ROI).
- 11-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -7.94% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -17.63% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 9.33% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 14% (13 SO in 96 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 7.71 (72.1 IP) on the road since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 4.05 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .244 (10-for-41) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 — ninth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .430 (228 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .317 — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried allowed a slugging percentage of just .189 (25 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 56% (104/184) against Max Fried in two-strike counts in 2022 — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 93rd Percentile.
Max Fried allowed an OPS of just .418 (149 PA’s) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .720 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 61% (325/534) of opposing batters in 2022 — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — 10th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Nationals are just 0-110 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Nationals are just 112-13 (.896) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 19-105 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-33 (.283) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Twins are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 38 strikeouts in 249 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 41 extra-base hits out of 173 total hits (just 24%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals hitters have just 139 strikeouts in 760 PA’s (18%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .293 (511 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 167 of their 784 plate appearances (21%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Twins are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .217 (121 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Twins hitters are slugging .600 with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 10 of 187 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 50 of 758 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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