- The Twins are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Twins Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (+185) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Saturday, July 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Nationals are 41-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 49-51 ATS.
Nationals vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 6-10, 4.99 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 10-4, 2.64 ERA
Nationals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 9 -120 | +185 |
| Twins | -1.5 -110 | U 9 +100 | -225 |
Nationals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 66.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.40 Units / 105% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+8.15 Units / 136% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+7.10 Units / 101% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 87 games (+13.19 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+11.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 away games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games (+9.92 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 36 away games (+3.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+14.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games at home (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 51-52 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -8.63% ROI).
- 41-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.32 Units / -12.14% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 2.16% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.1 Units / -10.7% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 49-51 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -2.46% ROI).
- 50-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.3 Units / -9.15% ROI
- 42-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.15 Units / -17.9% ROI
- 57-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.55 Units / 9.24% ROI
Twins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Twins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 3.5 -118 | 3.5 -110 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 31% (70 SO in 226 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OBP of .367 (180 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .293 (46-for-157) against Mitchell Parker when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — fourth Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 16% (29 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has allowed an OBP of just .243 (243 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (37/159) against Joe Ryan with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (23/148) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .185 (30-for-162) against Joe Ryan when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 91st Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Nationals are just 34-2 (.919) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .957.
The Nationals are just 39-54 (.415) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 8-24 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
The Nationals are just 40-62 (.388) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Twins are just 4-10 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 2-41 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Twins are just 2-111 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .293 (1,267 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .362 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Twins hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Twins are batting just .212 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Twins hitters are slugging just .165 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Twins are batting just .132 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Nationals pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 74% of the time over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Nationals have allowed 1.95 runs per game (201/103) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 44 double plays in 680 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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