- The Twins are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Twins Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Nationals / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-165) on Sunday, July 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Nationals are 42-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 49-52 ATS.
Nationals vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 7-5, 4.87 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: David Festa 3-4, 5.41 ERA
Nationals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | O 9.5 -105 | +140 |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | U 9.5 -115 | -165 |
Nationals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 61.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.40 Units / 105% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kody Clemens has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games at home (+16.40 Units / 182% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 85% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 57% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+12.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+11.89 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+8.72 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 37 away games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games at home (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+4.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 52-52 against the Run Line (-10.6 Units / -7.83% ROI).
- 42-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.22 Units / -10.13% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 3.01% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -11.6% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 49-52 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -3.36% ROI).
- 50-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.8 Units / -10.81% ROI
- 43-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.15 Units / -16.85% ROI
- 57-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.4 Units / 8.15% ROI
Twins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Twins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Twins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Sands (MIN) | 1.5 +120 | 1.5 -155 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 +145 | 4.5 -190 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown 59% of his pitches in the strike zone (495/844) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (408/1,363) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has allowed a slugging percentage of .529 (110 Total Bases / 208 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — first Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown 60% of his pitches in the strike zone (240/399) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .113 (7-for-62) against David Festa’s changeup this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 98th Percentile.
David Festa has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (256/882) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
David Festa has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 43 opportunities (2%) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
David Festa has thrown his changeup 38% of the time (234/613) with two-strikes since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Nationals are just 40-54 (.421) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 15-25 (.366) after a win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Nationals are just 43-68 (.384) after a win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Nationals are just 12-51 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Twins are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Twins are just 2-112 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Twins are just 4-10 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .294 (1,271 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .217 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
29% of Twins hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (450 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Twins hitters have struck out in just 16% of their PA’s against LHP this month (16 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 1.94 runs per game (202/104) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this month (20 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 58% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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