The Washington Nationals have a win total of 65.5 entering the 2026 season, per the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Nationals Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 65.5 wins: -105
- Under 65.5 wins: -115
Nationals Win Total Prediction 2026
- Pass at 65.5 wins
I have no interest in touching the Nationals’ MLB betting win total of 65.5 for the 2026 season.
This line feels more than fair, as evidenced by PECOTA’s initial projection of 65.6 wins. FanGraphs’ playoff odds are a bit more optimistic, forecasting 68.6 victories.
I tend to think the Nationals are more likely to finish under their win total than over, as they are a sneaky contender for the league’s worst record. Washington is in complete rebuild mode after winning 66 games in 2025.
The Nationals traded away their top starter, MacKenzie Gore, for several prospects that aren’t ready to make a big-league impact. They now rank 29th in total projected WAR for pitchers in 2026, besting only the Colorado Rockies.
Washington’s lineup shows a bit more potential, but it’s a unit that is putting a lot of pressure on James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Dylan Crews as the young core. Abrams has been involved in trade rumors, so there is a chance the offense could get worse after ranking 23rd in wRC+ last year.
Since winning the 2019 World Series, the Nationals haven’t made the playoffs. They have averaged 65.6 wins over the past five years, prompting them to hire a new general manager (Anirudh Kilambi) and a new manager (Blake Butera) in the offseason.
I’d be surprised if things are fixed overnight while competing in a competitive division.
Nationals Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 70.5 | 66 | Under |
| 2024 | 66.5 | 71 | Over |
| 2023 | 59.5 | 71 | Over |
| 2022 | 70.5 | 55 | Under |
| 2021 | 84.5 | 65 | Under |
| 2020 | 32.5 | 26 | Under |
| 2019 | 89 | 93 | Over |
| 2018 | 93.5 | 82 | Under |
| 2017 | 91.5 | 97 | Over |
| 2016 | 88.5 | 95 | Over |
| 2015 | 94 | 83 | Under |
| 2014 | 89.5 | 96 | Over |
| 2013 | 92 | 86 | Under |
| 2012 | 94 | 98 | Over |
| 2011 | 72 | 80 | Over |
| 2010 | 71 | 69 | Under |
| 2009 | 73.5 | 59 | Under |
| 2008 | 72.5 | 59 | Under |
| 2007 | 66.5 | 73 | Over |
| 2006 | 77 | 71 | Under |
| 2005 | 69.5 | 81 | Over |
| 2004 | 73.5 | 67 | Under |
| 2003 | 75.5 | 83 | Over |
| 2002 | 69.5 | 83 | Over |
| 2001 | 74.5 | 68 | Under |
| 2000 | 73.5 | 67 | Under |
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