- The Yankees are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Watch the game on YES
The Washington Nationals (+120) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-145) on Wednesday, August 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Nationals vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 58-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 59-66 ATS.
Nationals vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -110 | +120 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -110 | -145 |
Nationals vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+10.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+9.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 35 games (+9.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Bauers has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.45 Units / 61% ROI)
Yankees vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Rutherford | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Yankees vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Rutherford | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Yankees vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Rutherford | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Yankees vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 61 away games (+14.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.34 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 games (+16.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.79 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 67 games at home (+2.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 70-56 against the Run Line (+7.15 Units / 4.67% ROI).
- 58-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.15 Units / 16.43% ROI
- 57-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -8.33% ROI
- 62-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 59-66 against the Run Line (-10.5 Units / -6.79% ROI).
- 60-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -10.24% ROI
- 57-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 64-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 0.87% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has an ERA of 7.64 (66.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has an average spin rate of 1972.9 RPM on sliders since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 2396.1 — second Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 31 of 242 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (145/524) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .700 (105 Total Bases / 150 ABs) on fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .458 — first Percentile.
Luis Severino has an ERA of 7.98 (67.2 IP)this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 4.32 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .541 (20-for-37) against Luis Severino on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .353 — first Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .607 (179 Total Bases / 295 ABs) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Nationals are just 33-51 (.393) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are 14-7 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 34-151 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Nationals are just 35-58 (.376) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 28-68 (.292) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Yankees are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Yankees are just 8-44 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 682 strikeouts in 3,497 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .321 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Yankees hitters are slugging just .386 against RHP this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .301 (2,371 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Yankees are batting just .229 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Yankees pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Calf, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D10
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Nail, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
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