- The Astros (81-46) are -185 favorites vs the Orioles (66-59)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (5-4), 3.44 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (12-4), 3.62 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 66-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 64-60 ATS.
Orioles vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -105 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -115 | -185 |
Orioles vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 56.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+13.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 59 games at home (+16.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+13.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 35 away games (+15.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+14.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 away games (+14.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 34 away games (+3.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 114 games (+28.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 56 games at home (+9.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games at home (+8.75 Units / 13% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 82-42 against the Run Line (+32.05 Units / 19.47% ROI).
- 66-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +28.35 Units / 21.7% ROI
- 57-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -7.26% ROI
- 62-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -0.4% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 64-60 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 3.46% ROI).
- 79-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 2.77% ROI
- 45-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.75 Units / -24.15% ROI
- 72-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.25 Units / 16.17% ROI
Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .312 (54-for-173) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .226 — second Percentile.
Dean Kremer has induced opposing hitters to ground into 5 double plays in 12 opportunities (42%) this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (18/26) against Dean Kremer — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a first-pitch strike rate of 76% (70/92) this month (4 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 97th Percentile.
José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Urquidy has a strikeout rate of just 34% (104 SO in 302 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 69% (1,158/1,669) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (80/227) against Jose Urquidy this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has struck out just 17% (50/296) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 12th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Orioles are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Orioles are 29-6 (.829) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Orioles are just 12-25 (.324) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 37-24 (.607) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Astros are 41-6 (.872) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Astros are just 3-34 (.081) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Astros are 39-27 (.591) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Astros are 4-34 (.105) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have 348 strikeouts in 1,402 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .225 (2,494 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 628 strikeouts in 3,488 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 248 strikeouts in 1,407 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 2,163 strikeouts in 11,040 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (1162.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 35% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Pressly (Astros): Neck, D15
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
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