- The Astros are -185 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: John Means
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Monday, September 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 93-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 76-74 ATS.
Orioles vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -115 | -185 |
Orioles vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 62.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Orioles vs Astros and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+10.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jack Flaherty has hit the Earned Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+16.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+14.95 Units / 93% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
Astros vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Astros vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Astros vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Astros vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| John Means | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -105 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 146 games (+34.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 74 away games (+27.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 away games (+13.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 74 away games (+10.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 41 away games (+4.52 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 56 of their last 95 games (+12.41 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 77 games (+6.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.64 Units / 12% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 89-60 against the Run Line (+24.15 Units / 12.53% ROI).
- 93-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +33.3 Units / 17.15% ROI
- 76-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.35 Units / 5.74% ROI
- 61-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.85 Units / -13.82% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 76-74 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.27% ROI).
- 84-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -3.94% ROI
- 78-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 0.69% ROI
- 69-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -9.62% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 15% (8/54) against Eduardo Rodriguez in late innings in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 13% (17/128) against Eduardo Rodriguez on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 18% (99/547) against Eduardo Rodriguez in 2022 — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents batted just .197 (12-for-61) against Eduardo Rodriguez on low fastballs in 2022 — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander allowed a batting average of .350 vs right-handed batters (fifth worst)– ninth Percentile and just .143 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fifth best among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .503 (597 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .228 (13-for-57) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .354 — 98th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has thrown fastballs up 61% of the time (1,526/2,486) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Orioles are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 30-18 (.625) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Orioles are 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 55-18 (.753) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Astros are 38-20 (.655) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 58-39 (.598) after a road win since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Astros are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 188-120 (.606) against the run line (12.9% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are 33-15 (.688) against the run line (26.5% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
The Orioles are 18-6 (.750) against the run line (42.5% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Orioles are 83-49 (.619) against the run line (16.4% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are slugging .543 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Astros are batting .186 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 1,015 strikeouts in 5,647 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 26 of 458 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 185 of 2,768 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .191 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Astros pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (1359.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Astros vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
- Terrin Vavra (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
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