- The Astros are -155 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Baltimore Orioles (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 94-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 76-75 ATS.
Orioles vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -105 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -115 | -155 |
Orioles vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+15.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+10.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+10.50 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+16.30 Units / 96% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+16.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 21 games at home (+11.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Astros vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Astros vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 147 games (+35.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 75 away games (+28.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 75 away games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 75 away games (+11.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 42 away games (+5.52 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 56 of their last 96 games (+11.21 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 78 games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+2.33 Units / 8% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 90-60 against the Run Line (+25.15 Units / 12.96% ROI).
- 94-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +34.95 Units / 17.91% ROI
- 77-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.35 Units / 6.31% ROI
- 61-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.85 Units / -14.34% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.27% ROI).
- 84-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -4.74% ROI
- 79-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.15 Units / 1.28% ROI
- 69-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.7 Units / -10.17% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .274 (354 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 10th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .270 (181-for-670) against Kyle Gibson this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 10th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has located his breaking pitches away 65% of the time (484/745) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents batted .364 (47-for-129) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (156/260) against Hunter Brown’s curve and slider since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .444 (20 GB hits out of 45 GBs) against Hunter Brown with runners in scoring position this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .250 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (84/443) against Hunter Brown since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (79/133) against Hunter Brown on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Orioles are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 32-3 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Orioles are 57-35 (.620) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Orioles are 80-54 (.597) after a loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Astros are 38-20 (.655) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Astros are 78-44 (.639) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Astros are 35-22 (.614) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .436.
The Astros are 134-17 (.887) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 101-54 (.652) against the run line (17.9% ROI) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Orioles are 189-120 (.608) against the run line (13.1% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are 53-21 (.716) against the run line (32.7% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 34-15 (.694) against the run line (27.5% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 1,017 strikeouts in 5,679 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 637 strikeouts in 3,598 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 316 strikeouts in 1,748 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 187 of 2,788 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 56 of 1,007 batters (6%) over the last 30 days (27 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .187 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.39 (1368.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (2792.1 IP) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Astros vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
- Terrin Vavra (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
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