- The Blue Jays are -130 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Blue Jays TV Channel: ATV
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-125) on Friday, March 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON, Canada.
This season, the Orioles are 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 0-2 ATS.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -110 | +105 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -110 | -125 |
Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Earned Runs Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 89 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 154 games (+17.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 61 away games (+16.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 74 away games (+10.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 78 away games (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 58 games at home (+16.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in their last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+1.25 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games at home (+1.05 Units / 3% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 77.05% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 83.33% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 93.02% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 0-2 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 93.02% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
Blue Jays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has walked 55 of 530 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 35% of the time (228/658) when behind in the count in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 46% of the time (664/1,432) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has allowed an OBP of .346 (529 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — third Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman allowed a slugging percentage of just .169 (71 Total Bases / 420 ABs) with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 95th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman located his fastball up for a strike 75% (358/478) of the time in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 94 of Kevin Gausman’s 523 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 18%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 75% (697/926) of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Orioles are 67-23 (.744) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Orioles were just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2024 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 37-90 (.291) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Orioles are 38-52 (.422) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Blue Jays are 27-15 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays are just 20-109 (.155) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Blue Jays are 68-42 (.618) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters slugged .440 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Orioles won 62% of games in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .738 (9,458 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 818 strikeouts in 4,063 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters had an OBP of .343 (1,405 PA’s) against LHP in 2023 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Blue Jays hitters drew 133 walks in 1,405 PA’s (10%) against LHP in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .211 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Orioles have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Orioles pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Blue Jays pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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