- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Orioles / Braves TV Channel: MASN | FDSO | FDSE | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-180) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA, GA.
This season, the Orioles are 37-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 36-49 ATS.
Orioles vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 4-7, 5.63 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider 3-6, 3.91 ERA
Orioles vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -140 | O 9 -115 | +150 |
| Braves | -1.5 +118 | U 9 -105 | -180 |
Orioles vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 59.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+15.00 Units / 167% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+17.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+13.80 Units / 345% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 39 away games (+16.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 away games (+8.94 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+6.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+2.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+17.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+1.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 32-53 against the Run Line (-24.66 Units / -22.87% ROI).
- 37-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.3 Units / -17.69% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.93 Units / -13.75% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.33 Units / 5.59% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 36-49 against the Run Line (-13.07 Units / -13.12% ROI).
- 39-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.53 Units / -21.93% ROI
- 33-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -20.85% ROI
- 48-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.8 Units / 12.53% ROI
Braves vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Braves vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Braves vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider (ATL) | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +100 |
| Charlie Morton (BAL) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton allowed a slugging percentage of .577 (45 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on fastballs away in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — third Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (656/1,195) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked the leadoff hitter in the inning 16% of the time this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Charlie Morton has picked-off 9 runners since last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 39% (635/1,644) against Spencer Strider in 2023 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 42% (332/783) against Spencer Strider in 2023 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 54% (74/138) against Spencer Strider’s sliders this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 53% (80/152) against Spencer Strider’s breaking pitches this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Orioles are just 0-45 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Orioles are just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Orioles are just 12-25 (.324) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Braves (Ranks eighth runs allowed) today.
The Orioles are just 36-40 (.474) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Braves are just 11-43 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Braves are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Braves are just 30-5 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Braves are just 29-7 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging just .314 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Orioles hitters have 43 extra-base hits out of 178 total hits (just 24%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .229 (1,735 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .610 (884 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .596 (3,314 PA’s) with two-strikes in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of .454 this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Batters facing the Orioles pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 46% of the time over the last 14 days — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 37% of the time over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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