- The Cubs (34-52) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (43-44)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (5-7), 4.50 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-0), 2.90 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Orioles vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 43-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-43 ATS.
Orioles vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 9 +100 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -120 | -125 |
Orioles vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Cubs vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Cubs vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +110 |
| Jordan Lyles | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 67 games (+19.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 67 games (+18.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 59 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 55-32 against the Run Line (+17.45 Units / 15.71% ROI).
- 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.55 Units / 16.1% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -11.77% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 4.68% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (-7.35 Units / -6.6% ROI).
- 34-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.15 Units / -14.87% ROI
- 41-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -5.37% ROI
- 42-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -3.22% ROI
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .681 (210 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .476 — fourth Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .688 (33 Total Bases / 48 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 54% (275/513) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .400 (76 Total Bases / 190 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .249 — first Percentile.
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has not walked any of the 24 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .259 (7-for-27) against Adrian Sampson with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .150 — eighth Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has walked 1 of 44 batters (2%) this month (2 games) — tied for 13th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 88th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of .407 (11 Total Bases / 27 ABs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 11th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Orioles are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are just 18-27 (.400) on the road this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Orioles are 25-17 (.595) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Orioles are 34-2 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Cubs are just 10-40 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Cubs are just 4-23 (.148) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .112.
The Cubs are just 7-36 (.163) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles hitters have 738 strikeouts in 3,088 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .370 on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .302 (1,017 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 41 double plays in 288 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting .397 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Cubs hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .643 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.10 (967.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Orioles pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 885 of 9,510 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Wrist, Day-to-Day
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