Orioles vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cubs (34-52) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (43-44)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (5-7), 4.50 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-0), 2.90 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Orioles vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 43-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-43 ATS.

Orioles vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -190O 9 +100+105
Cubs -1.5 +155U 9 -120-125

Orioles vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Cubs vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 +1050 0.5
Christopher Morel 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Ian Happ 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500

Cubs vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Christopher Morel 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Ian Happ 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Nico Hoerner 1.5 +185 1.5 -275

Cubs vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Christopher Morel 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Ian Happ 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Cubs vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 3.5 -155 3.5 +110
Jordan Lyles 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 67 games (+19.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 67 games (+18.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 59 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.40 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 55-32 against the Run Line (+17.45 Units / 15.71% ROI).

  • 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.55 Units / 16.1% ROI
  • 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -11.77% ROI
  • 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 4.68% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (-7.35 Units / -6.6% ROI).

  • 34-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.15 Units / -14.87% ROI
  • 41-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -5.37% ROI
  • 42-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -3.22% ROI

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .681 (210 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .476 — fourth Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .688 (33 Total Bases / 48 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — first Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 54% (275/513) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .400 (76 Total Bases / 190 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .249 — first Percentile.

Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Sampson has not walked any of the 24 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .259 (7-for-27) against Adrian Sampson with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .150 — eighth Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has walked 1 of 44 batters (2%) this month (2 games) — tied for 13th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 88th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of .407 (11 Total Bases / 27 ABs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 11th Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Orioles are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 18-27 (.400) on the road this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Orioles are 25-17 (.595) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Orioles are 34-2 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Cubs are just 10-40 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Cubs are just 4-23 (.148) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Cubs are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .112.

The Cubs are just 7-36 (.163) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Orioles hitters have 738 strikeouts in 3,088 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .370 on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .302 (1,017 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 41 double plays in 288 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs are batting .397 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Cubs hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .643 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.10 (967.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Orioles pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 885 of 9,510 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Cubs vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Hays (Orioles): Wrist, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.