Orioles vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 13

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 13, 2022, 11:01 AM
  • The Cubs (34-53) are -140 favorites vs the Orioles (44-44)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Spenser Watkins (2-1), 4.15 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (3-5), 4.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Baltimore Orioles (+115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-140) on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Orioles vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 44-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 43-44 ATS.

Orioles vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -175O 8 -105+115
Cubs -1.5 +145U 8 -115-140

Orioles vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.25 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+7.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+7.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+7.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Cubs vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
    Christopher Morel 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
    David Bote 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
    Ian Happ 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
    Nico Hoerner 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

    Cubs vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
    David Bote 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
    Ian Happ 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Nico Hoerner 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
    Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

    Cubs vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
    Christopher Morel 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
    David Bote 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
    Ian Happ 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
    Nico Hoerner 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

    Cubs vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Justin Steele 5.5 -110 5.5 -125
    Spenser Watkins 3.5 +105 3.5 -150
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 68 games (+20.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 68 games (+19.80 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+13.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+10.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 56-32 against the Run Line (+18.45 Units / 16.35% ROI).

    • 44-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.6 Units / 17.08% ROI
    • 38-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.3 Units / -12.83% ROI
    • 47-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 5.65% ROI

    Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 43-44 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -7.43% ROI).

    • 34-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.4 Units / -15.98% ROI
    • 41-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -6.51% ROI
    • 43-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -2.14% ROI

    Right-handed batters are hitting just .100 (2-for-20) against Spenser Watkins — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .245 — 97th Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (4/17) against Spenser Watkins this month (2 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.

    Spenser Watkins has a strikeout rate of just 13% (26 SO in 207 PAs) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

    Spenser Watkins has allowed a slugging percentage of just .100 (2 Total Bases / 20 ABs) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .397 — 98th Percentile.

    Justin Steele: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (151/335) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

    Justin Steele has walked 7 of 49 batters (14%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

    Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (20/51) against Justin Steele with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

    Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (690/953) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 99th Percentile.

    Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

    The Orioles are just 9-25 (.265) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Orioles are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Orioles are 25-17 (.595) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

    The Orioles are just 22-72 (.234) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.

    Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

    The Cubs are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .112.

    The Cubs are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

    The Cubs are just 17-28 (.378) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

    The Cubs are just 25-3 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

    Orioles hitters are slugging .943 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

    Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .298 (6,192 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.

    The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 42% at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

    Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .455 (1,769 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.

    Cubs hitters have grounded into 41 double plays in 288 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    The Cubs are batting .393 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

    Cubs hitters are slugging .669 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

    Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.10 (967.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

    Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

    Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% versus the heart of the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

    The Cubs have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

    Cubs pitchers have walked 890 of 9,550 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    Cubs vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60

  • Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


    Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

    At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

    About the Author

    BetMGM Betting

    Read More @BETMGM

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.