- The Cubs are -145 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Saturday, June 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Orioles vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 43-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 38-31 ATS.
Orioles vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -115 | -145 |
Orioles vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+11.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 46 games (+20.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+11.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+11.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+10.60 Units / 70% ROI)
Cubs vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cubs vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Cubs vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 66 games (+17.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 34 away games (+14.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 away games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+12.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+5.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.55 Units / 65% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 42-27 against the Run Line (+12.75 Units / 14.42% ROI).
- 43-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.15 Units / 18.14% ROI
- 34-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.4% ROI
- 31-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -8.25% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 38-31 against the Run Line (+5.5 Units / 6.2% ROI).
- 32-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.8 Units / -7.12% ROI
- 35-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -1.83% ROI
- 33-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.35 Units / -7.07% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 17% (58 SO in 344 PAs) this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has struck out just 17% (31/184) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 15th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 63% (806/1,287) this season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 17th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .136 (6-for-44) against Kyle Gibson on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .249 — 97th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 51% of the time (138/271) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Dane Dunning threw his breaking pitches for a strike just 54% (385/710) of the time in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Dane Dunning threw fastballs down 48% of the time (493/1,027) in 2022 — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 84.8 MPH (190 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.1 — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Orioles are 9-3 (.750) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .460.
The Orioles are 18-7 (.720) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Orioles are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Orioles are 30-22 (.577) after a road loss since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 3-26 (.103) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Cubs are just 28-13 (.683) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Cubs are just 1-103 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 62% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 62% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Orioles are 25-9 (.735) against the run line (34.9% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .233 (4,643 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.14 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .407 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .795 (735 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .165 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Orioles have won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 40 of 610 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.1 MPH (1,686 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, D10
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Groin, D10
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