- The Orioles are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cole Irvin
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Baltimore Orioles (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Friday, September 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Orioles vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 83-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 72-60 ATS.
Orioles vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -105 | -120 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -115 | +100 |
Orioles vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 54.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+12.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+10.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 away games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+13.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Irvin | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Zach Davies | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -155 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 120 games (+25.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 65 away games (+6.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games (+3.43 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.09 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.91 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.50 Units / 65% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 81-52 against the Run Line (+24.15 Units / 13.89% ROI).
- 83-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +30.1 Units / 17.55% ROI
- 66-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.15 Units / 4.96% ROI
- 54-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.9 Units / -12.89% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 72-60 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 3.28% ROI).
- 68-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 4.11% ROI
- 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.05 Units / -12.89% ROI
- 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 4.69% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 15% (8/54) against Eduardo Rodriguez in late innings in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 13% (17/128) against Eduardo Rodriguez on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 18% (99/547) against Eduardo Rodriguez in 2022 — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
The last hit on a Cole Irvin breaking pitch was August 6th. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — tied with Albert Abreu for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his pitches away 67% of the time (570/855) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 61% of the time (374/608) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (1,169/1,830) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (900/2,504) against Zach Davies in non-two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Orioles are 53-40 (.570) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Orioles are 32-17 (.653) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Orioles are 81-38 (.681) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Orioles are 40-24 (.625) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Diamondbacks are just 122-13 (.904) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 107-21 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Diamondbacks are just 29-14 (.674) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are 18-112 (.138) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 28-13 (.683) against the run line (25.3% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Orioles are 179-113 (.609) against the run line (13.3% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are 80-45 (.630) against the run line (18.1% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Orioles are 17-5 (.773) against the run line (45.3% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 285 strikeouts in 1,398 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .489 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .517 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .173 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Orioles pitchers have walked 177 of 2,634 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles have won 48% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 857 times this season — 3rd most in MLB.
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
- Aaron Hicks (Orioles): Back, D10
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