- The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Watch the game on ARID
The Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Orioles vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 84-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 73-61 ATS.
Orioles vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -115 | +120 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -145 |
Orioles vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+11.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+10.30 Units / 64% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Adley Rutschman | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Jack Flaherty | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 122 games (+25.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 67 away games (+6.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.18 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games at home (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.09 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.61 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games at home (+7.24 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 33% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 82-53 against the Run Line (+24.4 Units / 13.87% ROI).
- 84-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.9 Units / 17.19% ROI
- 67-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +7 Units / 4.78% ROI
- 55-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -19 Units / -12.77% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 73-61 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 2.97% ROI).
- 69-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 4.05% ROI
- 58-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.2 Units / -12.8% ROI
- 69-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 4.55% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed three-ball counts to 22% of batters they faced (166/742 PA’s) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 12% — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .390 (397 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .309 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed three-ball counts to 23% of batters they faced (92/399 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 0 Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 37 of 210 batters (18%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .446 (37-for-83) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — eighth Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .278 (695 PA’s) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 87th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .194 (366 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 91st Percentile.
Zac Gallen has walked 37 of 695 batters (5%) this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 83rd Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Orioles are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 53-40 (.570) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Orioles are 33-18 (.647) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Orioles are 123-7 (.946) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .869.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Diamondbacks are just 108-21 (.837) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Diamondbacks are just 123-13 (.904) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-14 (.682) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are just 51-9 (.850) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 81-46 (.628) against the run line (18.0% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Orioles are 95-52 (.646) against the run line (16.8% ROI) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Orioles are 28-13 (.683) against the run line (25.3% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Orioles are 42-22 (.656) against the run line (18.3% ROI) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/11,096) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .681 (3,117 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .176 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles pitchers have walked 21 of 430 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pham (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Christian Walker (Diamondbacks): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
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