• The Orioles are +100 favorites vs the Guardians
• Orioles vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Orioles / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | MASN

The Baltimore Orioles (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on April 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Orioles are 9-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 10-9 ATS.

Orioles vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Orioles starting pitcher: Shane Baz 0-1, 4.11 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 2-0, 0.51 ERA

Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Orioles vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+22.50 Units / 450% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 60% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Shane Baz has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+27.00 Units / 270% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)

Orioles Best Bets Today:

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 away games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 50 away games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+4.25 Units / 12% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+18.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 7-11 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -17.55% ROI).

• 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -10.66% ROI
• 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 5.32% ROI
• 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -16.12% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 10-9 against the Run Line (-0.45 Units / -1.79% ROI).

• 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 18.91% ROI
• 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -9.11% ROI
• 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.24% ROI

Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Orioles were just 1-77 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.

The Orioles were just 10-67 (.130) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

The Orioles are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.

The Orioles are just 17-43 (.283) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Guardians are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .108.

The Guardians were 33-4 (.868) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .743.

The Guardians are 36-4 (.878) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.

The Guardians were 66-5 (.930) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .875.

Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends

Orioles hitters are slugging just .333 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

The Orioles are batting just .253 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .671 (3,291 PA’s) on the road since the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .192 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians batted just .226 in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .192 in righty-righty matchups since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are averaging 4.20 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB.

Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends

Orioles pitchers walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have walked 9% of batters this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have walked 3% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB.

In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles won just 11% of the time in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents had a chase percentage of just 26% against the Guardians pitchers in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.

Guardians pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (471.1 IP) against division opponents in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.51 (498.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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