- The Guardians are -140 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Guardians TV Channel: MAS2 | GDTV
The Baltimore Orioles (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-140) on Monday, July 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Orioles are 44-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 52-45 ATS.
Orioles vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano 7-5, 4.43 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 5-9, 4.32 ERA
Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +115 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -140 |
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ramon Urias has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+11.10 Units / 111% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+26.30 Units / 292% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 64% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.60 Units / 77% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.50 Units / 50% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 45 away games (+18.73 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+10.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 away games (+6.69 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 50 games (+5.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+10.64 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 54% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 41-56 against the Run Line (-19.06 Units / -15.22% ROI).
- 44-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -13.47% ROI
- 41-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.83 Units / -16.59% ROI
- 54-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.03 Units / 8.34% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 52-45 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 0.56% ROI).
- 48-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -1.29% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -11.12% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 3.53% ROI
Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nolan Jones (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nolan Jones (CLE) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -155 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
36% of Tomoyuki Sugano’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a strikeout rate of just 14% (59 SO in 422 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (135/749) against Tomoyuki Sugano this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .272 (107-for-394) against Tomoyuki Sugano this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — seventh Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .059 (1-for-17) against Tanner Bibee when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .215 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .348 (8-for-23) against Tanner Bibee with two-strikes in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .151 — first Percentile.
60% of Tanner Bibee’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .418 (23-for-55) against Tanner Bibee on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .337 — sixth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Orioles are 42-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Orioles are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Orioles are just 2-110 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Orioles were 36-10 (.783) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Guardians are 21-0 (.955) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
The Guardians are 110-5 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .864.
The Guardians are 40-2 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Guardians are just 10-101 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging just .324 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Orioles hitters have 52 extra-base hits out of 198 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .617 (980 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Orioles hitters have drawn walks in 8% of their PA’s with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .196 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Guardians are batting just .182 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Guardians are batting just .224 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians hitters have struck out in 30% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Orioles pitchers over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 2% of batters over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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