- The Guardians are -185 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish (2-5), 5.62 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (8-7), 3.02 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Thursday, September 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 68-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-59 ATS.
Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -135 | O 7.5 -120 | +150 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +110 | U 7.5 +100 | -185 |
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 65.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+17.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+13.50 Units / 80% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+13.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 47 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -130 |
| Kyle Bradish | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 67 games (+17.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 39 away games (+14.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 away games (+14.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+4.95 Units / 5% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 84-44 against the Run Line (+31.35 Units / 18.44% ROI).
- 68-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.45 Units / 21.87% ROI
- 57-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.35 Units / -10.23% ROI
- 66-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 2.42% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 68-59 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 2.68% ROI).
- 68-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 6.5% ROI
- 55-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -10.16% ROI
- 63-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 1.86% ROI
Kyle Bradish: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.99 (41.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.90 — 0 Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .360 (64-for-178) against Kyle Bradish this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed an OBP of .386 (223 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .307 — first Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed an OBP of .368 (351 PA’s) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .305 — third Percentile.
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (23/63) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 59% of the time (361/610) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (100/283) against Shane Bieber on fastballs since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (226/664) against Shane Bieber since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Orioles are 51-1 (.981) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Orioles are just 6-8 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 27-8 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Guardians are 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Guardians are 12-49 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have 350 strikeouts in 1,406 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Orioles are batting just .153 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,027 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Guardians hitters have just 627 strikeouts in 3,586 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Guardians are batting just .309 in hitter’s counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (1162.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Orioles pitchers have walked 345 of 4,816 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 70 of 1,139 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 446.0 feet — — 4th shortest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6
Guardians vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
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