Orioles vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 1

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 01, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians are -185 favorites vs the Orioles
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish (2-5), 5.62 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (8-7), 3.02 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Thursday, September 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Orioles vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 68-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-59 ATS.

Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -135O 7.5 -120+150
Guardians -1.5 +110U 7.5 +100-185

Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 65.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+17.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+13.50 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+13.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Adley Rutschman has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 47 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)

Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Austin Hedges 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Josh Naylor 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Austin Hedges 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Josh Naylor 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Austin Hedges 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Josh Naylor 0.5 +130 0.5 -185

Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Shane Bieber 6.5 -110 6.5 -130
Kyle Bradish 3.5 -120 3.5 -115
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 67 games (+17.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 39 away games (+14.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 away games (+14.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+4.95 Units / 5% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 84-44 against the Run Line (+31.35 Units / 18.44% ROI).

  • 68-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.45 Units / 21.87% ROI
  • 57-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.35 Units / -10.23% ROI
  • 66-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 2.42% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 68-59 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 2.68% ROI).

  • 68-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 6.5% ROI
  • 55-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -10.16% ROI
  • 63-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 1.86% ROI

Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.99 (41.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.90 — 0 Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .360 (64-for-178) against Kyle Bradish this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has allowed an OBP of .386 (223 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .307 — first Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has allowed an OBP of .368 (351 PA’s) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .305 — third Percentile.

Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (23/63) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.

Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 59% of the time (361/610) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (100/283) against Shane Bieber on fastballs since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (226/664) against Shane Bieber since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Orioles are 51-1 (.981) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Orioles are just 6-8 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 27-8 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Guardians are 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Guardians are 12-49 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Orioles hitters have 350 strikeouts in 1,406 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Orioles are batting just .153 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,027 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Guardians hitters have just 627 strikeouts in 3,586 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Guardians are batting just .309 in hitter’s counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (1162.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

Orioles pitchers have walked 345 of 4,816 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 70 of 1,139 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 446.0 feet — — 4th shortest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6

Guardians vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.