• The Marlins are -130 favorites vs the Orioles
• Orioles vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Orioles / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | MASN

The Baltimore Orioles (+110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-130) on May 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Orioles are 15-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 17-18 ATS.

Orioles vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Orioles starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 2-2, 5.40 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 3-2, 3.09 ERA

Orioles vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Orioles vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Orioles vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

• Leody Taveras has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+14.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• Leody Taveras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 away games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+26.00 Units / 371% ROI)
• Graham Pauley has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+12.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Orioles Best Bets Today:

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 24 games (+13.60 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 13 games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 14-21 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -17.65% ROI).

• 15-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -19.27% ROI
• 24-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.85 Units / 30.62% ROI
• 11-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -39.77% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 17-18 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -5.75% ROI).

• 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -2.23% ROI
• 20-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 14.18% ROI
• 13-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.9 Units / -23.3% ROI

Marlins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Orioles are just 3-16 (.158) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Orioles are just 2-94 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Orioles are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 2-7 (.222) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .367.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Marlins are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.

The Marlins are just 12-3 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Marlins are just 50-70 (.417) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2024 season Today, they face the Orioles (28th runs allowed).

The Marlins are just 1-5 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.

Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends

The Orioles are batting just .231 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .322 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

The Orioles are batting just .207 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Orioles are batting just .225 on the road since the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .416 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have 9 extra-base hits out of 43 total hits (just 21%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP since the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 9.00 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have allowed an OBP of .350 (1,742 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 42 stolen bases this season — most in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 3.45 runs per game (69/20) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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