• The Marlins are -125 favorites vs the Orioles
• Orioles vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Orioles / Marlins TV Channel: MASN | MATV

The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on May 7, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Orioles are 17-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 17-20 ATS.

Orioles vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 1-1, 4.41 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 2-0, 2.68 ERA

Orioles vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Orioles vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Orioles vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

• Pete Alonso has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 away games (+12.10 Units / 173% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.10 Units / 76% ROI)
• Leody Taveras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 44% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.60 Units / 95% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.55 Units / 51% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Esteury Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+28.00 Units / 400% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 48% ROI)

Orioles Best Bets Today:

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 35 games (+16.05 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 away games (+3.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+2.35 Units / 12% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+9.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 16-21 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -12.05% ROI).

• 17-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -13.24% ROI
• 26-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.85 Units / 33.86% ROI
• 11-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.45 Units / -43.03% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 17-20 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -9.75% ROI).

• 16-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -8.05% ROI
• 22-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.5 Units / 18.29% ROI
• 13-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -27.48% ROI

Marlins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Orioles are 6-1 (.857) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .625.

The Orioles are just 3-16 (.158) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

The Orioles are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 2-94 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Marlins are just 1-18 (.053) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Marlins are just 12-3 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Marlins are just 1-5 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Marlins are just 34-37 (.479) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2025 season Today, they face the Orioles (28th runs allowed).

Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends

The Orioles are batting just .242 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .346 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .140 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB.

The Orioles are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .395 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .278 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have 9 extra-base hits out of 45 total hits (just 20%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 9.00 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 4.87 (327.0 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Opponents are hitting .271 against Orioles pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .202 against Marlins pitchers with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 19 double plays in 253 opportunities (7%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 1.14 runs per game (42/37) in late innings this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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