- The Orioles are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MASN
The Baltimore Orioles (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 9-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 9-7 ATS.
Orioles vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +110 | O 9 -120 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | U 9 +100 | +120 |
Orioles vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.30 Units / 87% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+6.60 Units / 126% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.95 Units / 99% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Nationals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Nationals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Nationals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 9-7 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 0.91% ROI).
- 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 7.52% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 36.57% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.7 Units / -44.51% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 9-7 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 11.47% ROI).
- 5-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -18.13% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 9.43% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -14.69% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .762 (16 Total Bases / 21 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .322 — second Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (19 Total Bases / 19 ABs) on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .392 — first Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of just 23% (8 SO in 34 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .864 (19 Total Bases / 22 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (37/71) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has located his fastball up for a strike just 33% (14/42) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 55% (49/89) in two strike counts this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .580 (149 Total Bases / 257 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .388 — first Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Orioles are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .880.
The Orioles are 31-9 (.775) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
The Orioles are 4-3 (.571) at home this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Orioles are 72-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Nationals are just 2-4 (.333) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Nationals are just 17-32 (.347) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 0-108 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Nationals are just 7-9 (.438) as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .603.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have drawn 25 walks in 180 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Orioles are batting just .228 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .385 (180 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of 1.500 (140 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.148.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 33 extra-base hits out of 141 total hits (just 23%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals hitters have just 433 strikeouts in 2,189 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .136 on the road over the past seven days (2 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 46 of 609 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 103 of 1,580 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Foot, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
- Ramón UrÃas (Orioles): Ear, Day-to-Day
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