Orioles vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 18, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Orioles are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Baltimore Orioles (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Orioles vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Orioles are 9-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 9-7 ATS.

Orioles vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles-1.5 +110O 9 -120-145
Nationals +1.5 -135U 9 +100+120

Orioles vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.30 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.85 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+6.60 Units / 126% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.95 Units / 99% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Nationals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Joey Meneses 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Dominic Smith 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Nationals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryan Mountcastle 1.5 +185 1.5 -250
Joey Meneses 1.5 +200 1.5 -275
Dominic Smith 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Nationals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 +115 0.5 -150
Joey Meneses 0.5 +175 0.5 -225
Dominic Smith 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Nationals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josiah Gray 4.5 -120 4.5 -110
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 9-7 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 0.91% ROI).

  • 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 7.52% ROI
  • 11-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 36.57% ROI
  • 4-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.7 Units / -44.51% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 9-7 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 11.47% ROI).

  • 5-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -18.13% ROI
  • 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 9.43% ROI
  • 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -14.69% ROI

Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .762 (16 Total Bases / 21 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .322 — second Percentile.

Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (19 Total Bases / 19 ABs) on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .392 — first Percentile.

Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of just 23% (8 SO in 34 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .864 (19 Total Bases / 22 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (37/71) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has located his fastball up for a strike just 33% (14/42) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 55% (49/89) in two strike counts this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.

Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .580 (149 Total Bases / 257 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .388 — first Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Orioles are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .880.

The Orioles are 31-9 (.775) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .651.

The Orioles are 4-3 (.571) at home this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.

The Orioles are 72-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Nationals are just 2-4 (.333) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.

The Nationals are just 17-32 (.347) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.

The Nationals are just 0-108 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.

The Nationals are just 7-9 (.438) as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .603.

Orioles hitters have drawn 25 walks in 180 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Orioles are batting just .228 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of .385 (180 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .328.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of 1.500 (140 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.148.

Nationals hitters have 33 extra-base hits out of 141 total hits (just 23%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals hitters have just 433 strikeouts in 2,189 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .136 on the road over the past seven days (2 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.

Orioles pitchers have walked 46 of 609 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 103 of 1,580 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
  • Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
  • Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Foot, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Ear, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.