- The Orioles are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Watch the game on MASN
The Baltimore Orioles (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 10-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 10-7 ATS.
Orioles vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 +100 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -120 | +120 |
Orioles vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 away games (+8.30 Units / 85% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.60 Units / 90% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 74% ROI)
Nationals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Nationals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Nationals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+0.55 Units / 5% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 9-8 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 11.56% ROI
- 11-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 29.4% ROI
- 5-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -36.22% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 10-7 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 15.71% ROI).
- 5-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -22.94% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 3.51% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -8.47% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (49/281) against Cole Irvin on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Cole Irvin has an ERA of 10.66 (12.2 IP)this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 4.46 — third Percentile.
Cole Irvin has located his pitches away 57% of the time (314/548) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (1/15) against Cole Irvin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has walked 9 of 41 batters (22%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 47 of 372 batters (13%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 43% (9/21) against MacKenzie Gore when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (187/773) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Orioles are 66-3 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 15-73 (.170) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Orioles are 6-1 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Orioles are 38-41 (.481) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Nationals are just 2-5 (.286) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Nationals are just 0-109 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Nationals are just 18-104 (.148) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Nationals are just 11-63 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 207 of their 667 plate appearances (31%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles hitters have drawn 25 walks in 180 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .791 (667 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .385 (180 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .305 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .591 (399 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Nationals hitters have just 110 strikeouts in 642 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 33 extra-base hits out of 146 total hits (just 23%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Orioles pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 46 of 642 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 103 of 1,589 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.77 (1387.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
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