Orioles vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 19, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Orioles are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
  • Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Baltimore Orioles (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Orioles vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Orioles are 10-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 10-7 ATS.

Orioles vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles-1.5 +110O 8.5 +100-145
Nationals +1.5 -135U 8.5 -120+120

Orioles vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Austin Hays has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 away games (+8.30 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.60 Units / 90% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 74% ROI)

Nationals vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Hays 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Anthony Santander 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
James McCann 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Nationals vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Hays 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Anthony Santander 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
Jorge Mateo 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
James McCann 0.5 -165 0.5 +125

Nationals vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Hays 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Anthony Santander 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +230 0.5 -300
James McCann 0.5 +210 0.5 -275

Nationals vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Bradish 4.5 +110 4.5 -145
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+0.55 Units / 5% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 9-8 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -3.49% ROI).

  • 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 11.56% ROI
  • 11-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 29.4% ROI
  • 5-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -36.22% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 10-7 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 15.71% ROI).

  • 5-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -22.94% ROI
  • 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 3.51% ROI
  • 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -8.47% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (49/281) against Cole Irvin on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Cole Irvin has an ERA of 10.66 (12.2 IP)this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 4.46 — third Percentile.

Cole Irvin has located his pitches away 57% of the time (314/548) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (1/15) against Cole Irvin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

MacKenzie Gore has walked 9 of 41 batters (22%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 47 of 372 batters (13%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 43% (9/21) against MacKenzie Gore when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (187/773) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Orioles are 66-3 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Orioles are 15-73 (.170) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Orioles are 6-1 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Orioles are 38-41 (.481) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Nationals are just 2-5 (.286) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Nationals are just 0-109 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.

The Nationals are just 18-104 (.148) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Nationals are just 11-63 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

Orioles hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 207 of their 667 plate appearances (31%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles hitters have drawn 25 walks in 180 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of .791 (667 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of .385 (180 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .305 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .591 (399 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.

Nationals hitters have just 110 strikeouts in 642 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have 33 extra-base hits out of 146 total hits (just 23%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Orioles pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 46 of 642 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 103 of 1,589 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.77 (1387.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
  • Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.