Orioles vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 14

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(AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 14, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Orioles
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
  • Watch the game on SDPA

The Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Monday, August 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Orioles vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Orioles are 73-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 57-61 ATS.

Orioles vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -185O 8.5 -120+120
Padres -1.5 +150U 8.5 +100-145

Orioles vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 60.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

  • James McCann has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.70 Units / 107% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • James McCann has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • James McCann has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+8.75 Units / 11% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 33 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+17.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+16.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.50 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)

Padres vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jordan Westburg 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Ji-man Choi 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Ryan O'Hearn 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Padres vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Jordan Westburg 0.5 -135 0.5 +100
Ji-man Choi 0.5 -120 0.5 -105
Ryan O'Hearn 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Cedric Mullins 0.5 -160 0.5 +125

Padres vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ryan Mountcastle 0.5 +195 0.5 -250
Jordan Westburg 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Ji-man Choi 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Ryan O'Hearn 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +220 0.5 -300

Padres vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yu Darvish 6.5 +130 6.5 -175
Grayson Rodriguez 5.5 -115 5.5 -115
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 115 games (+29.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 105 games (+26.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 59 away games (+5.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 59 away games (+4.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 111 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 108 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+6.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 64 games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 73-45 against the Run Line (+25.1 Units / 16.3% ROI).

  • 73-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +28.3 Units / 19.4% ROI
  • 58-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 2.68% ROI
  • 50-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.15 Units / -10.79% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 57-61 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -6.93% ROI).

  • 56-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.8 Units / -17.56% ROI
  • 47-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.2 Units / -16.93% ROI
  • 62-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.65 Units / 8.27% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (20/32) against Grayson Rodriguez — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 70% (16/23) against Grayson Rodriguez — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Grayson Rodriguez has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to July 17th — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 17.

Grayson Rodriguez has not allowed a home run in any of the last 28.2 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 97.0.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .135 (5-for-37) against Yu Darvish on low fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .279 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (240/431) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a just .267 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth best)– 92nd Percentile and .560 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 12th Percentile.

11 of Yu Darvish’s 46 breaking pitch strikeouts (24%) have been backdoor this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 91st Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Orioles are 52-39 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Orioles are 37-8 (.822) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Orioles are 20-16 (.556) after a road win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Orioles are 29-16 (.644) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Padres are just 1-5 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are just 7-27 (.206) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.

The Padres are just 10-52 (.161) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Padres are just 4-45 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Orioles are 24-12 (.667) against the run line (20.8% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.

The Orioles are batting .388 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.

Orioles hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .594.

The Orioles are 170-106 (.612) against the run line (13.9% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Padres hitters have drawn 124 walks in 1,309 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,047 PA’s) when leading off an inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .180 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 171 of 2,499 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 46% of their games since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Padres vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
  • David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
  • Daniel Coulombe (Orioles): Biceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.