- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Orioles vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 74-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 57-62 ATS.
Orioles vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Orioles vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.70 Units / 107% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 26 games (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+9.75 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+18.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 34 games (+17.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+15.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+13.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 33% ROI)
Padres vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Padres vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -185 |
| Jack Flaherty | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 106 games (+27.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 60 away games (+5.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+4.44 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 112 games (+14.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 109 games (+12.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 33 games at home (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.19 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 65 games (+4.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 74-45 against the Run Line (+26.1 Units / 16.76% ROI).
- 74-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +28.3 Units / 19.4% ROI
- 58-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 2.68% ROI
- 50-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.15 Units / -10.79% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 57-62 against the Run Line (-11.05 Units / -7.57% ROI).
- 56-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.8 Units / -17.56% ROI
- 47-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.35 Units / -17.66% ROI
- 63-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.65 Units / 8.97% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .456 (195 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .317 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 59% (673/1,140) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .364 (533 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 35 of 195 batters (18%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (488/1,033) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .134 (11 GB hits out of 82 GBs) against Michael Wacha this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (12-for-80) against Michael Wacha when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .222 (8-for-36) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .353 — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Orioles are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 52-39 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Orioles are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Orioles are 35-25 (.583) after a road loss since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Padres are just 1-5 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 5-11 (.312) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Padres are just 47-27 (.635) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .388 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Orioles are 43-16 (.729) against the run line (34.5% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Orioles are 172-106 (.614) against the run line (14.6% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are 16-4 (.800) against the run line (51.1% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Games involving the Padres went UNDER in 89% of their games (71.8% ROI) after a win as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres are batting just .218 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .176 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 171 of 2,508 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,850 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Orioles): Biceps, D15
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