- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-185) on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 74-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 58-62 ATS.
Orioles vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -110 | +150 |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -110 | -185 |
Orioles vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 71.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 43 games (+10.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 27 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 35 games (+18.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+17.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 36 games (+16.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 31 games (+14.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Blake Snell | 7.5 -145 | 7.5 +110 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 107 games (+25.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 away games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 113 games (+13.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 110 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 66 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 74-46 against the Run Line (+24.4 Units / 15.5% ROI).
- 74-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +27.3 Units / 18.58% ROI
- 59-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.45 Units / 3.42% ROI
- 50-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.2 Units / -11.5% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 58-62 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -6.46% ROI).
- 57-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.8 Units / -16.86% ROI
- 48-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.35 Units / -16.75% ROI
- 63-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.6 Units / 8.09% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has walked 5 of 21 left-handed batters (24%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (23/68) against Dean Kremer with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .451 (60 Total Bases / 133 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .309 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (118/381) against Dean Kremer with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 76 of 546 batters (14%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 54% (273/507) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 61 of 451 right-handed batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 31% of batters they faced (141/451 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — first Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Orioles are 52-39 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Orioles are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Orioles are 116-7 (.943) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Padres are just 1-5 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-7 (.222) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Padres are just 48-27 (.640) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 43-17 (.717) against the run line (32.3% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Orioles are 26-13 (.667) against the run line (22.1% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Orioles are 172-107 (.612) against the run line (14.2% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are batting .389 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Games involving the Padres went UNDER in 89% of their games (71.8% ROI) after a win as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters are slugging .451 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,320 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .178 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 171 of 2,516 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,850 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.61 (544.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Padres vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Orioles): Biceps, D15
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