- The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Phillies TV Channel: MASN | NSPA
The Baltimore Orioles (+165) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-200) on Monday, August 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Orioles are 51-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 54-56 ATS.
Orioles vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 2-5, 5.21 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 9-5, 4.34 ERA
Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -120 | O 9 -105 | +165 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | U 9 -115 | -200 |
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 64.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Coby Mayo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+11.50 Units / 144% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 84% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.90 Units / 85% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.85 Units / 84% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.70 Units / 119% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.50 Units / 106% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 52 away games (+20.53 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 55 away games (+14.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 63 games (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.04 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+12.76 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 111 games (+10.99 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 games at home (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 88 games (+7.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 55 games at home (+5.70 Units / 6% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 50-61 against the Run Line (-16.11 Units / -11.14% ROI).
- 51-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.85 Units / -11.75% ROI
- 48-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.33 Units / -14.12% ROI
- 60-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.28 Units / 5.88% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 54-56 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -4.18% ROI).
- 63-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -0.89% ROI
- 48-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.7 Units / -12.87% ROI
- 58-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 4.25% ROI
Phillies vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 12% (15/128) against Cade Povich this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 16% — sixth Percentile.
Cade Povich has allowed a slugging percentage of .419 (131 Total Bases / 313 ABs) when ahead in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.
Cade Povich has allowed an OPS of .971 (64 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .707 — fourth Percentile.
Cade Povich has a strike rate of just 62% (531/856) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 10th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (289/976) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 86th Percentile.
39% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 10th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .397 (121 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .311 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .260 (122-for-470) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 15th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are just 43-7 (.860) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Orioles are just 2-117 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Orioles are 135-3 (.978) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Orioles are 49-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .958.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 11-31 (.262) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Phillies are just 7-15 (.318) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 23-78 (.228) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Phillies are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .878.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .385 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,310 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .325 (4,226 PA’s) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Phillies hitters have a swing rate of 42% on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Orioles pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 3% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 3% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have allowed 3.57 runs per game (200/56) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Phillies pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
