- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Baltimore Orioles (-105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-115) on Monday, July 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Orioles vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 61-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-59 ATS.
Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 -110 | -105 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 -110 | -115 |
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 55.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.35 Units / 76% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 50% ROI)
Phillies vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Austin Hays | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 96 games (+23.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 49 away games (+20.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 49 away games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 49 away games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 82 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 42 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 41 games (+2.15 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 59-40 against the Run Line (+17.15 Units / 13.5% ROI).
- 61-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.7 Units / 18.38% ROI
- 50-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 4.79% ROI
- 41-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -14 Units / -12.77% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 40-59 against the Run Line (-28.75 Units / -22.72% ROI).
- 53-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -3.77% ROI
- 39-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.05 Units / -14.67% ROI
- 50-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 6.87% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .485 (50 Total Bases / 103 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .312 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (100/327) against Dean Kremer with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .456 (26-for-57) against Dean Kremer on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .337 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (21/59) against Dean Kremer with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of just .091 (22 PA’s) with two-strikes — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .245 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted .324 (73-for-225) against Patrick Corbin’s non-fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed a slugging percentage of .569 (128 Total Bases / 225 ABs) on non-fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .367 — 0 Percentile.
Division opponents batted .350 against Patrick Corbin (104-for-297) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are 59-28 (.678) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Orioles are 106-6 (.946) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Orioles are 12-5 (.706) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Orioles are 48-39 (.552) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 23-95 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are just 9-17 (.346) after a road loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Phillies are 12-8 (.600) after a home loss this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Phillies are just 30-37 (.448) after a loss as favorites since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .398 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Orioles are 83-46 (.643) against the run line (15.7% ROI) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Orioles on 50% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.. *
The Orioles are 35-13 (.729) against the run line (34.7% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have drawn 74 walks in 1,138 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters have 290 strikeouts in 1,138 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .251 with two outs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 160 of 2,329 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Orioles pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 155 of 2,310 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 61 of 879 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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