- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Baltimore Orioles (+100) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-120) on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Orioles vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 62-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-60 ATS.
Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 -120 | +100 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 +100 | -120 |
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Orioles vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 76% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Phillies vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 97 games (+24.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 50 away games (+21.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 50 away games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 83 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 42 games (+2.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 60-40 against the Run Line (+18.15 Units / 14.09% ROI).
- 62-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.7 Units / 19.04% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.1 Units / 3.74% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -13 Units / -11.74% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 40-60 against the Run Line (-29.75 Units / -23.32% ROI).
- 53-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -4.61% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.15 Units / -15.52% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.45 Units / 7.71% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (28/41) against Kyle Gibson over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson allowed a batting average of just .169 vs right-handed batters (eighth best)– 92nd Percentile and .375 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (third worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 75% (15/20) against Kyle Gibson — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .458 (11-for-24) against Kyle Gibson — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .252 — second Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 58% (300/516) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 61% (1,067/1,737) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 59% (499/838) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (71/405) against Taijuan Walker this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are 20-8 (.714) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Orioles are 60-28 (.682) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Orioles are 69-47 (.595) after a loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
The Orioles are 69-61 (.531) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 43-26 (.623) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Phillies are just 9-17 (.346) after a road loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Phillies are 23-97 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 85-55 (.607) after a win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Orioles are 36-13 (.735) against the run line (35.1% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 73-42 (.629) against the run line (18.3% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 64% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 290 strikeouts in 1,147 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have 66 extra-base hits out of 203 total hits (just 33%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 76 walks in 1,147 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Orioles pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 160 of 2,338 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 155 of 2,319 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 916 times this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (118.2 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 116.3).
Phillies vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Aaron Hicks (Orioles): Hamstring, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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