- The Orioles are -110 favorites vs the Phillies
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Baltimore Orioles (-110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-110) on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Orioles vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 62-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-61 ATS.
Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +145 | O 9 +100 | -110 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -120 | -110 |
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 52.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+7.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 67% ROI)
Phillies vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Phillies vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Phillies vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Ranger Suarez | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 98 games (+23.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 51 away games (+22.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 away games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 51 away games (+6.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 84 games (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+12.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games (+10.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 43 games (+0.85 Units / 1% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 61-40 against the Run Line (+19.15 Units / 14.69% ROI).
- 62-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.7 Units / 18.09% ROI
- 50-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.8% ROI
- 43-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -12 Units / -10.72% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 40-61 against the Run Line (-30.75 Units / -23.92% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -3.84% ROI
- 39-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.15 Units / -16.28% ROI
- 52-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.45 Units / 8.53% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has walked 1 of 83 batters (1%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed an OBP of just .074 (27 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s in late innings this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 21% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (26/69) against Kyle Bradish when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (573/1,063) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (46/75) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (144/231) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (826/1,561) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Orioles are 60-29 (.674) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Orioles are 48-39 (.552) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Orioles are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 23-97 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Phillies are 32-21 (.604) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Phillies are 40-3 (.930) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .853.
The Phillies are 43-26 (.623) after a road win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .393 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Orioles are 85-46 (.649) against the run line (16.3% ROI) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Orioles are 37-13 (.740) against the run line (35.5% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
The Orioles are 160-101 (.611) against the run line (13.4% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Phillies hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Phillies hitters have 290 strikeouts in 1,147 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 160 of 2,347 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 157 of 2,328 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (430.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Phillies vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Aaron Hicks (Orioles): Hamstring, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): Back, Day-to-Day
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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