- The Phillies are -140 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish, 2.00 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jeremy Walker, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH+
The Baltimore Orioles (+115) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-140) on Monday, March 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Clearwater.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Orioles vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Orioles are 6-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 6-10 ATS.
Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -120 | +115 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 +100 | -140 |
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rylan Bannon has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tyler Nevin has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rylan Bannon has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.70 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 142 games (+28.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 142 games (+22.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 8-7 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -9.02% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.65 Units / 34.45% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -42.64% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 6-10 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -26.25% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -9.77% ROI
- 12-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.3 Units / 40.67% ROI
- 4-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -52.16% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish had an ERA of 7.21 (63.2 IP) against division opponents last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — second Percentile.
Division opponents batted .324 against Kyle Bradish (85-for-262) last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .247 — third Percentile.
Kyle Bradish allowed a slugging percentage of just .245 (12 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on low fastballs last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish had a strike rate of just 61% (351/573) in two strike counts last season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — ninth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 28-7 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Orioles are 14-68 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Orioles are 9-69 (.115) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles batted just .152 with two-strikes last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Orioles hitters have 909 strikeouts in 3,781 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,578 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles hitters had an OPS of just .470 (3,221 PA’s) with two-strikes last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies batted .176 on pitches out of the zone last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (1334.2 IP) against division opponents since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
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