- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells, 13.50 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 1.80 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH+
The Baltimore Orioles (+145) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-175) on Thursday, March 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Orioles are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 3-5 ATS.
Orioles vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -110 | +145 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +110 | U 9 -110 | -175 |
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 66.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 142 games (+28.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 142 games (+22.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -8.88% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -14.67% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 34.09% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -42.53% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-5 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -25.89% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -14.51% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 40.88% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -51.16% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .170 (9-for-53) against Tyler Wells on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .160 (16-for-100) against Tyler Wells when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 95th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .193 (34-for-176) against Tyler Wells last season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 90th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 35% (63/181) against Tyler Wells last season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — ninth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (24/171) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (98/156) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez had a strike rate of just 57% (68/119) in late innings last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (149/245) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles are 69-25 (.734) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Orioles are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 14-68 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Orioles are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters had an OPS of just .534 (259 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Orioles hitters have 909 strikeouts in 3,781 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,578 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,323 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 185 of 2,843 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
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