- The Rays (59-53) are -175 favorites vs the Orioles (59-54)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (9-8), 4.35 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (6-4), 2.95 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Baltimore Orioles (+145) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-175) on Sunday, August 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Orioles vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 59-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 52-60 ATS.
Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -145 | O 7 +100 | +145 |
| Rays | -1.5 +120 | U 7 -120 | -175 |
Orioles vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 34 games (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+15.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.15 Units / 60% ROI)
Rays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Rays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Luke Raley | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Rays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
| Jordan Lyles | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -145 |
| Jordan Lyles | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 93 games (+29.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 93 games (+27.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games (+12.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 50 of their last 90 games (+9.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 36 games at home (+4.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+3.30 Units / 7% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 74-39 against the Run Line (+27.75 Units / 18.62% ROI).
- 59-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.35 Units / 19.55% ROI
- 54-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -3.16% ROI
- 54-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.5 Units / -4.36% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 52-60 against the Run Line (-8.7 Units / -6.33% ROI).
- 59-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -7.08% ROI
- 51-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -5.44% ROI
- 54-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -2.22% ROI
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .410 (107 Total Bases / 261 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .234 (61-for-261) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (46 Total Bases / 69 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .299 (288 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — first Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (34/95) against Drew Rasmussen on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.6 MPH on pitches away since the start of last season (169 balls in play) — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 87.8
Drew Rasmussen has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 12 innings — the longest active streak is 14.
Opponents are hitting just .214 (12-for-56) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Orioles are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Orioles are 33-21 (.611) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Orioles are just 26-76 (.255) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Orioles are 42-1 (.977) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rays are just 48-7 (.873) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Rays are 39-6 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Rays are 34-22 (.607) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Rays are 5-37 (.119) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Orioles are batting .434 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Orioles hitters have 337 strikeouts in 1,352 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 20 double plays in 347 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 138 double plays in 1,837 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Rays have scored 1.72 runs per game (465/271) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 63% at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.88 (1101.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have won just just 15% of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 707 of 10,127 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 146 of 2,463 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 271 of 4,129 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Harold Ramírez (Rays): Thumb, D10
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
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