- The Orioles are +105 favorites vs the Rays
- Orioles vs Rays Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Orioles / Rays TV Channel: MAS2 | FSUN | WTOG
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Friday, July 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Orioles are 43-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 47-48 ATS.
Orioles vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 5-7, 5.19 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 5-6, 4.59 ERA
Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +165 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Rays | +1.5 -200 | U 9 -105 | -125 |
Orioles vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+12.20 Units / 152% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+9.40 Units / 188% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 42 away games (+17.83 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+5.69 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.45 Units / 46% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+7.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 39-55 against the Run Line (-19.21 Units / -16.06% ROI).
- 43-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.8 Units / -12.99% ROI
- 40-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.68 Units / -16.01% ROI
- 52-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.13 Units / 7.75% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 47-48 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.9% ROI).
- 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.42 Units / -1.19% ROI
- 39-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.8 Units / -19.3% ROI
- 54-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.85 Units / 11.21% ROI
Rays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Rays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Rays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (BAL) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (349/968) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 47% of the time (705/1,517) vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 56% of the time (461/824) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,053/2,345) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (20/141) against Taj Bradley this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (14-for-42) against Taj Bradley’s low fastballs this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .266 — 22nd Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (10/71) against Taj Bradley with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 55% (77/141) against Taj Bradley this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Orioles are just 37-6 (.860) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Orioles are just 0-47 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Orioles are 41-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Orioles are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rays are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Rays are 4-36 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Rays are 16-163 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are 79-12 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging just .325 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .361 on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .618 (972 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of 1.215 (601 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.065.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging just .232 over the past seven days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .461 (105 PA’s) over the past seven days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Rays are batting just .178 against LHP this month (11 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 4.93 (837.1 IP) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
The Orioles pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles won just 7% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 82 double plays in 611 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Rays pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays pitchers have walked 10% of batters over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Rays pitchers over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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