- The Rays are -185 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-185) on Thursday, July 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Orioles vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 58-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 52-47 ATS.
Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -115 | +150 |
| Rays | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -105 | -185 |
Orioles vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 75.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+8.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.05 Units / 46% ROI)
Rays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
Rays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
Rays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -145 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 92 games (+20.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 45 away games (+19.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 away games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+7.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 44% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+16.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+12.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games at home (+12.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+10.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 56-39 against the Run Line (+15.7 Units / 12.95% ROI).
- 58-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.25 Units / 16.11% ROI
- 49-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.4 Units / 7.11% ROI
- 38-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -16 Units / -15.21% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 52-47 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 3.37% ROI).
- 60-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 3.5% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 3.88% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -13.01% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has allowed a just .148 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth best)– 92nd Percentile and .591 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 16th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 74% (14/19) against Kyle Gibson — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 61% (569/931) vs left-handed batters this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents batted .364 (47-for-129) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Glasnow has not allowed a runner to reach base (24 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has allowed a .600 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth worst)– 15th Percentile and just .120 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fourth best among qualified SPs)– 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (153/403) against Tyler Glasnow this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has allowed an OPS of just .000 (24 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .512 — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Orioles are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 57-37 (.606) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 16-12 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 103-6 (.945) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rays are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Rays are 35-14 (.714) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Rays are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Rays are 23-8 (.742) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .397 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Orioles on 49% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.. *
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .759 (1,790 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Orioles are 32-12 (.727) against the run line (35.4% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Rays have scored first in 62% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays hitters are slugging .451 this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Rays hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .180 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 149 of 2,318 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays pitchers have walked 684 of 9,570 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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