- The Rays are -145 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-145) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Orioles vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 59-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 52-48 ATS.
Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -110 | +120 |
| Rays | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -110 | -145 |
Orioles vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 66.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+10.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 16 away games (+9.70 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Rays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Wander Franco | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Rays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Wander Franco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Rays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Wander Franco | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Zach Eflin | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 93 games (+21.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 46 away games (+20.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 46 away games (+9.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 away games (+8.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+15.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+11.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games at home (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 51 games at home (+8.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 57-39 against the Run Line (+16.7 Units / 13.62% ROI).
- 59-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.75 Units / 17.22% ROI
- 49-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.35 Units / 6.04% ROI
- 39-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -15 Units / -14.1% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 52-48 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 2.5% ROI).
- 60-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 2.45% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.2 Units / 2.9% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -11.96% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 41% (26/63) against Kyle Bradish when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 6.57 (89.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — second Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has walked 1 of 75 batters (1%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (48/153) against Kyle Bradish this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has walked 15 of 416 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (45/416 PA’s) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed an OBP of just .229 (205 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .315 — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 7 of 205 left-handed batters (3%) this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Orioles are 57-27 (.679) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Orioles are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Orioles are 104-6 (.945) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Orioles are 113-8 (.934) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rays are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Rays are 35-15 (.700) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Rays are 60-39 (.606) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 86-45 (.656) at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .404 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Orioles are 33-12 (.733) against the run line (36.2% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .752 (1,826 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Orioles are 19-9 (.679) against the run line (23.8% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rays hitters are slugging .457 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .782 (739 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Rays have scored first in 62% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 155 of 2,303 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .178 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 15 of 349 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 684 of 9,606 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Knee, D10
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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