- The Rays are -185 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-185) on Saturday, July 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Orioles vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 59-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 53-48 ATS.
Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -105 | +150 |
| Rays | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 -115 | -185 |
Orioles vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 76.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+9.35 Units / 104% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+8.45 Units / 11% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+10.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.40 Units / 56% ROI)
Rays vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Rays vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Rays vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 94 games (+20.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 47 away games (+18.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 47 away games (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 47 away games (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 51 games at home (+14.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 52 games at home (+11.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 52 games at home (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 57-40 against the Run Line (+15.15 Units / 12.2% ROI).
- 59-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.75 Units / 16.26% ROI
- 49-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 4.94% ROI
- 40-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -14 Units / -13.03% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 53-48 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 3.6% ROI).
- 61-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 3.04% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.1 Units / 1.88% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.1 Units / -10.94% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .639 (39 Total Bases / 61 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .383 — second Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .569 (119 Total Bases / 209 ABs) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .419 — second Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a BABIP of .380 this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed an OPS of .947 (233 PA’s) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .733 — second Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 76% (32/42) against Shane McClanahan on low breaking pitches this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has allowed a slugging percentage of .650 (39 Total Bases / 60 ABs) on sliders this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .396 — second Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has an ERA of 2.56 (102.0 IP)this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.95 — 100th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has a strike rate of 68% when ahead in the count (second highest)– 98th Percentile and 66% when behind in the count this season (tied for ninth lowest among qualified SPs)– 17th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Orioles are 57-28 (.671) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Orioles are 20-8 (.714) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Orioles are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 68-47 (.591) after a loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rays are just 2-8 (.200) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Rays are 49-2 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Rays are 35-8 (.814) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .681.
The Rays are 10-15 (.400) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .402 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Orioles on 49% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.. *
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 61% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Orioles are 72-42 (.626) against the run line (17.8% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .455 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Rays hitters are slugging .388 on PA’s that last 5+ pitches this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 69% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Rays have scored first in 64% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 155 of 2,311 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Orioles pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 61% of their games since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 686 of 9,637 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 149 of 2,337 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Knee, D10
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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