- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Saturday, April 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 0-0 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -120 | +130 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 +100 | -155 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rylan Bannon has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Christian Arroyo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -150 |
| Chris Sale | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 163 games (+25.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 99 of their last 163 games (+21.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 82 away games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 82 games at home (+3.30 Units / 3% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer had a strikeout rate of just 25% (19/76) with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (51/257) against Dean Kremer on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (62/197) against Dean Kremer since the 2021 season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Dean Kremer had a strikeout rate of just 32% (87/270) with two-strikes in 2022 — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — sixth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Sale has not allowed a walk in his last 61 PAs against a LHH dating back to August 3rd, 2019 — Scott Alexander has the longest active streak at 68.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are just 42-20 (.677) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Orioles are just 47-96 (.329) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Orioles are 99-12 (.892) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Orioles are just 6-167 (.035) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are 133-46 (.743) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Red Sox were just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox were just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Red Sox were just 27-49 (.355) when underdogs in 2022 — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles batted just .152 with two-strikes in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 42% since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters had an OBP of .336 (1,547 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (1334.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 185 of 2,843 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home in 2022 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) in 2022 — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Undisclosed, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Undisclosed, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Undisclosed, D15
- James McCann (Orioles): Undisclosed, D10
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