- The Red Sox are -140 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cole Irvin
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-140) on Sunday, April 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 0-2 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -165 | O 11 -250 | +115 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | U 11 +195 | -140 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rylan Bannon has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Justin Turner | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Adam Duvall | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Irvin | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Tanner Houck | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 164 games (+24.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 100 of their last 164 games (+22.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 83 away games (+3.95 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 83 games at home (+2.30 Units / 2% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 2-0 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 60.61% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 2.5% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -100% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 0-2 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -100% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -8.93% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -100% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Irvin has a strike rate of 71% (671/940) with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 21% (279/1,357) against Cole Irvin in 2022 — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Cole Irvin had a first-pitch strike rate of 67% (495/738) in 2022 — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 93rd Percentile.
55% of Cole Irvin’s called strikeouts were inside in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Houck walked 14 of 101 left-handed batters (14%) in 2022 — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — fifth Percentile.
Tanner Houck allowed an OPS of just .496 (146 PA’s) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .657 — 94th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are just 42-20 (.677) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Orioles were 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Orioles are just 6-167 (.035) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Orioles are just 29-112 (.206) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are 71-73 (.493) vs the 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Red Sox were just 39-35 (.527) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Red Sox are 69-51 (.575) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Red Sox were just 2-66 (.029) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have 909 strikeouts in 3,781 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters had an OPS of just .534 (259 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Orioles hitters had an OPS of just .470 (3,221 PA’s) with two-strikes in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .430 against RHP since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (1334.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have won just just 15% of the time since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) in 2022 — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,030 times in 2022 — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Undisclosed, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Undisclosed, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Undisclosed, D15
- James McCann (Orioles): Undisclosed, D10
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