Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 11, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox (54-58) are -130 favorites vs the Orioles (58-52)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (4-3), 3.43 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (5-5), 4.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 58-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 56-56 ATS.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -165O 10 -115+105
Red Sox -1.5 +140U 10 -105-130

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 71.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 31 games (+17.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+14.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+10.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+9.70 Units / 75% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jarren Duran 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Kevin Plawecki 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +195 1.5 -300
Jarren Duran 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Kevin Plawecki 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Rafael Devers 1.5 +160 1.5 -250

Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Jarren Duran 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Kevin Plawecki 0.5 +160 0.5 -250

Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Winckowski 3.5 +105 3.5 -150
Dean Kremer 3.5 -130 3.5 -110
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 90 games (+28.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 90 games (+28.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 87 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 83 games (+8.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+7.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 92 games (+4.55 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 78 games (+2.20 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 83 games (+1.90 Units / 2% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 72-38 against the Run Line (+27.05 Units / 18.73% ROI).

  • 58-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.1 Units / 20.7% ROI
  • 52-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -3.96% ROI
  • 53-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.25 Units / -3.46% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 56-56 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.25% ROI).

  • 54-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.5 Units / -7.55% ROI
  • 51-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -4.3% ROI
  • 52-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -2.91% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (56/181) against Dean Kremer this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Dean Kremer has allowed an OBP of just .133 (15 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (1 games) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .317 — 100th Percentile.

71% of Dean Kremer’s called strikeouts are low this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 92nd Percentile.

Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of just .133 (2 Total Bases / 15 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (1 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .394 — 98th Percentile.

Joshua Winckowski: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josh Winckowski has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to July 7th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 8.

Josh Winckowski has struck out just 7% (1/15) of left-handed batters he faced this month (1 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — eighth Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has thrown his slider 48% of the time (42/87) this month (1 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total SL; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Josh Winckowski was 112.4 MPH — 13th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.0

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 11-45 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Orioles are 44-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Orioles are just 13-24 (.351) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 11-25 (.306) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 1-45 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Red Sox are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Red Sox are just 6-24 (.200) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Red Sox are just 139-20 (.874) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Orioles have won just 60% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .302 (6,723 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 36% on the road since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .801 (5,114 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .181 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.89 (1076.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.83 (501.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.68 (1229.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.