• The Orioles are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
• Orioles vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10.5 Runs
• Orioles / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | MASN

The Baltimore Orioles (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on June 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 pm in Boston, MA.

This season, the Orioles are 29-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 26-32 ATS.

Orioles vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Orioles starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 2-6, 6.90 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-5, 5.63 ERA

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Orioles vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:

• Samuel Basallo has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 73% ROI)
• Samuel Basallo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+18.80 Units / 235% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.10 Units / 33% ROI)
• Marcelo Mayer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 50% ROI)

Orioles Best Bets Today:

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 away games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+11.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.10 Units / 30% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 29-33 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -6.07% ROI).

• 29-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -10.81% ROI
• 35-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.3 Units / 10.66% ROI
• 25-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -19.78% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 26-32 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -7.01% ROI).

• 26-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.8 Units / -21.31% ROI
• 28-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -7.8% ROI
• 30-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -1.59% ROI

Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 8-2 (.800) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .648.

The Orioles are just 6-27 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.

The Orioles are just 16-63 (.203) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Orioles are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 10-20 (.333) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Red Sox are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Red Sox are 24-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Red Sox are just 1-29 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.

Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends

Orioles hitters are slugging just .452 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .461 (1,250 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .372 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .324 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .476 in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .329 (1,177 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.82 (238.1 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents are hitting .262 against Orioles pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Orioles have allowed 2.94 runs per game (182/62) in the first 5 innings this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

The Orioles have allowed 1.65 runs per game (102/62) in late innings this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 0.87 runs per game (52/60) in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Red Sox pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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