- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson, – ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Corey Kluber, – ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 9-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 14-14 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 +100 | +100 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -120 | -120 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Kyle Gibson | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +105 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 142 games (+28.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 142 games (+22.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 12-9 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 5.6% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -6.63% ROI
- 13-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 23.9% ROI
- 7-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -31.91% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-14 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -6.61% ROI).
- 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.43% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -11.15% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .364 (47-for-129) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (224/679) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .353 (42-for-119) against Kyle Gibson over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson had a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% (423/719) last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .356 (47-for-132) against Corey Kluber with runners in scoring position last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Corey Kluber walked 21 of 689 batters (3%) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Corey Kluber allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (75 Total Bases / 132 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents batted .274 (178-for-650) against Corey Kluber last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — eighth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 28-7 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Orioles are 34-9 (.791) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Orioles are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are just 28-164 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles batted just .152 with two-strikes last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Orioles batted just .224 against LHP last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Orioles hitters have 909 strikeouts in 3,781 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 42% since the start of the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters had an OBP of .336 (1,547 PA’s) against LHP last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (1334.2 IP) against division opponents since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 157 times since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Undisclosed, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Undisclosed, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Undisclosed, D15
- James McCann (Orioles): Undisclosed, D10
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