- The Orioles are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Sunday, September 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 0-0 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -115 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -105 | +100 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 53.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+14.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+15.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+14.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Brayan Bello | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 127 games (+28.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 72 away games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+2.82 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 21 games (+15.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (20-for-40) against Grayson Rodriguez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .352 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 74% (26/35) against Grayson Rodriguez on fastballs away this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .154 (8 GB hits out of 52 GBs) against Grayson Rodriguez with runners on base this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 50% (53/106) against Grayson Rodriguez this season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 88th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (94/150) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (124/203) against Brayan Bello this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 53% (220/416) on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .342 (64-for-187) against Brayan Bello when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 30-17 (.638) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Orioles are 53-40 (.570) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Orioles are 36-14 (.720) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .566.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 13-123 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Red Sox are 33-32 (.508) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Red Sox are 43-28 (.606) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Red Sox are 22-17 (.564) after a win as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 33-14 (.702) against the run line (29.2% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Orioles are 18-6 (.750) against the run line (42.5% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Orioles are 100-53 (.654) against the run line (18.3% ROI) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Orioles are 185-115 (.613) against the run line (14.1% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Red Sox are batting .316 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .374 (637 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .186 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Orioles pitchers have walked 25 of 454 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Orioles pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.49 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.63.
The Red Sox have allowed 7.67 runs per game (92/12) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.92.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.04 (336.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.17 (999.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
- Jordan Westburg (Orioles): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
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