- The Red Sox (72-80) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (79-73)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (11-11), 4.50 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Connor Seabold (0-3), 10.46 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Monday, September 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 79-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 76-75 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -175 | O 9.5 -105 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 9.5 -115 | -125 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 away games (+14.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+14.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+11.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Adley Rutschman | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Seabold | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -115 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 132 games (+30.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 132 games (+28.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 away games (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 70 games (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 58 games at home (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.50 Units / 20% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 95-57 against the Run Line (+27 Units / 13.54% ROI).
- 79-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +26.55 Units / 16.03% ROI
- 68-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.65 Units / -9.98% ROI
- 78-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 1.96% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -1.81% ROI).
- 71-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.45 Units / -9.37% ROI
- 69-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -5.48% ROI
- 72-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.01% ROI
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .725 (375 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .462 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .307 (375 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .418 (143 Total Bases / 342 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 0 Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .607 (17 Total Bases / 28 ABs) with two-strikes — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — third Percentile.
Connor Seabold: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Seabold has limited playing time.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 66-24 (.733) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Orioles are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Orioles are 59-2 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 8-64 (.111) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 8-31 (.205) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Red Sox are just 4-61 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-59 (.078) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .578 (213 PA’s) against LHP this month (16 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,343 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles hitters have 402 strikeouts in 1,619 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.79 (1250.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 83 of 1,341 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 28 of 224 batters (12%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 149 times since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 10 of 98 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
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