Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 26

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 26, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (72-80) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (79-73)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (11-11), 4.50 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Connor Seabold (0-3), 10.46 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Monday, September 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 79-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 76-75 ATS.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -175O 9.5 -105+105
Red Sox -1.5 +145U 9.5 -115-125

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 26 away games (+14.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+14.55 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+11.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 49% ROI)

Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Rafael Devers 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Triston Casas 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rafael Devers 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Triston Casas 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Xander Bogaerts 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Adley Rutschman 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Anthony Santander 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Rafael Devers 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Triston Casas 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Connor Seabold 3.5 -125 3.5 -115
Jordan Lyles 3.5 -145 3.5 +105
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 132 games (+30.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 132 games (+28.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 away games (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 70 games (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 58 games at home (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 95-57 against the Run Line (+27 Units / 13.54% ROI).

  • 79-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +26.55 Units / 16.03% ROI
  • 68-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.65 Units / -9.98% ROI
  • 78-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.3 Units / 1.96% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -1.81% ROI).

  • 71-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.45 Units / -9.37% ROI
  • 69-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -5.48% ROI
  • 72-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.01% ROI

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .725 (375 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .462 — second Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .307 (375 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — second Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .418 (143 Total Bases / 342 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 0 Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .607 (17 Total Bases / 28 ABs) with two-strikes — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — third Percentile.

Connor Seabold: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Connor Seabold has limited playing time.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 66-24 (.733) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Orioles are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Orioles are 59-2 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Orioles are 8-64 (.111) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 8-31 (.205) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Red Sox are just 4-61 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 5-59 (.078) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .578 (213 PA’s) against LHP this month (16 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,343 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Orioles hitters have 402 strikeouts in 1,619 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Red Sox are batting .269 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.79 (1250.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 83 of 1,341 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 28 of 224 batters (12%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 149 times since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 10 of 98 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.