- The Red Sox (72-81) are -130 favorites vs the Orioles (80-73)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish (4-7), 4.65 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (11-1), 2.70 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 80-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 77-76 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -110 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -110 | -130 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Kyle Bradish | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 133 games (+31.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 133 games (+29.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+11.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 away games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 71 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 124 games (+6.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+4.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-57 against the Run Line (+28 Units / 13.93% ROI).
- 80-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +27.6 Units / 16.56% ROI
- 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.65 Units / -9.32% ROI
- 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 1.33% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 77-76 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -1.77% ROI).
- 72-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.7 Units / -9.36% ROI
- 71-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -4.22% ROI
- 72-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -3.28% ROI
Kyle Bradish: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish allowed an OBP of just .091 (22 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed a slugging percentage of .618 (47 Total Bases / 76 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .399 — first Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.03 (56.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 3.88 — second Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has pitched 12.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Cristian Javier has the longest active streak at 21.2.
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (267/561) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 28% (125/441) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (590/1,199) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (96/522) against Michael Wacha this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 26-6 (.812) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Orioles are just 14-26 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 8-64 (.111) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Orioles are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 63-7 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .569 (216 PA’s) against LHP this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Orioles hitters have 403 strikeouts in 1,622 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .310 against LHP this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .862 (278 PA’s) on the road this month (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,463 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 177 of 2,767 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 13 of 104 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 968 times this season — 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 80 of 820 batters (10%) this month (22 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 33 of 259 batters (13%) over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Ramón Urías (Orioles): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
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