Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (72-81) are -130 favorites vs the Orioles (80-73)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish (4-7), 4.65 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (11-1), 2.70 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 80-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 77-76 ATS.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -185O 9 -110+105
Red Sox -1.5 +150U 9 -110-130

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)

Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Rafael Devers 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Rob Refsnyder 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Rob Refsnyder 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Tommy Pham 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Triston Casas 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Rafael Devers 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Rob Refsnyder 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Michael Wacha 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
Kyle Bradish 4.5 -115 4.5 -120
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 133 games (+31.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 133 games (+29.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+11.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 away games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 71 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 124 games (+6.65 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+4.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.50 Units / 9% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-57 against the Run Line (+28 Units / 13.93% ROI).

  • 80-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +27.6 Units / 16.56% ROI
  • 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.65 Units / -9.32% ROI
  • 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 1.33% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 77-76 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -1.77% ROI).

  • 72-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.7 Units / -9.36% ROI
  • 71-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -4.22% ROI
  • 72-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -3.28% ROI

Kyle Bradish allowed an OBP of just .091 (22 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has allowed a slugging percentage of .618 (47 Total Bases / 76 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .399 — first Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.03 (56.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 3.88 — second Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has pitched 12.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Cristian Javier has the longest active streak at 21.2.

Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (267/561) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 28% (125/441) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (590/1,199) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (96/522) against Michael Wacha this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 26-6 (.812) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Orioles are just 14-26 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 8-64 (.111) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Orioles are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 63-7 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .569 (216 PA’s) against LHP this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.

Orioles hitters have 403 strikeouts in 1,622 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .310 against LHP this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of .862 (278 PA’s) on the road this month (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,463 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 177 of 2,767 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 13 of 104 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 968 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 80 of 820 batters (10%) this month (22 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 33 of 259 batters (13%) over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.