- The Red Sox (73-81) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (80-74)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (8-5), 3.07 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (7-7), 4.64 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 80-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 78-76 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -105 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -115 | -125 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Reese Mcguire | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Reese Mcguire | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Reese Mcguire | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -165 |
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-58 against the Run Line (+26.35 Units / 13% ROI).
- 80-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +26.6 Units / 15.87% ROI
- 70-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -8.66% ROI
- 78-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 0.73% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 78-76 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -0.98% ROI).
- 73-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -8.78% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -3.6% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -3.85% ROI
Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .282 (102-for-362) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .222 — fourth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has walked 7 of 56 batters (12%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (64/340) against Dean Kremer this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (22/39) against Dean Kremer — 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 90th Percentile.
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (555/1,283) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,978/4,306) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (289/902) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (484/1,097) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 13-64 (.169) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Orioles are 26-7 (.788) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Orioles are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Orioles are just 14-26 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 5-60 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .864 on the road over the past seven days (2 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Orioles hitters are slugging .585 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .919 (322 PA’s) on the road this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Orioles hitters are slugging .561 on the road this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 3,266 of their 12,002 plate appearances (27%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .356 (889 PA’s) this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (1267.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 179 of 2,775 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.77 (694.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox have allowed 5.28 runs per game (401/76) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- Ramón Urías (Orioles): Knee, Day-to-Day
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