Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (73-81) are -125 favorites vs the Orioles (80-74)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (8-5), 3.07 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (7-7), 4.64 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 80-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 78-76 ATS.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -190O 9 -105+105
Red Sox -1.5 +155U 9 -115-125

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)

Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Rafael Devers 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Reese Mcguire 0.5 +1050 0.5

Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Reese Mcguire 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Tommy Pham 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Triston Casas 0.5 -160 0.5 +110

Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Rafael Devers 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Reese Mcguire 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rich Hill 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
Dean Kremer 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-58 against the Run Line (+26.35 Units / 13% ROI).

  • 80-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +26.6 Units / 15.87% ROI
  • 70-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -8.66% ROI
  • 78-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 0.73% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 78-76 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -0.98% ROI).

  • 73-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -8.78% ROI
  • 72-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -3.6% ROI
  • 72-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -3.85% ROI

Opponents are hitting .282 (102-for-362) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .222 — fourth Percentile.

Dean Kremer has walked 7 of 56 batters (12%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (64/340) against Dean Kremer this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (22/39) against Dean Kremer — 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 90th Percentile.

Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (555/1,283) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,978/4,306) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (289/902) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (484/1,097) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 13-64 (.169) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Orioles are 26-7 (.788) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Orioles are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Orioles are just 14-26 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 5-60 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Orioles hitters are slugging .864 on the road over the past seven days (2 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Orioles hitters are slugging .585 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .388.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of .919 (322 PA’s) on the road this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

Orioles hitters are slugging .561 on the road this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 3,266 of their 12,002 plate appearances (27%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .356 (889 PA’s) this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (1267.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 179 of 2,775 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.77 (694.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Red Sox have allowed 5.28 runs per game (401/76) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Knee, Day-to-Day

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.