- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 88-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 70-70 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | O 10 -105 | -125 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 10 -115 | +105 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+14.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+12.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.25 Units / 63% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 126 games (+27.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 71 away games (+10.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+4.07 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 20 games (+14.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+0.80 Units / 2% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 85-54 against the Run Line (+26.3 Units / 14.53% ROI).
- 88-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +34.1 Units / 18.95% ROI
- 71-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +11 Units / 7.3% ROI
- 55-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.35 Units / -15.25% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 70-70 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -5.48% ROI).
- 72-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.69% ROI
- 73-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.5 Units / 4.24% ROI
- 60-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.85 Units / -13.65% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .302 (26-for-86) against Kyle Bradish’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — sixth Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed a slugging percentage of .641 (41 Total Bases / 64 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — second Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed an OPS of just .630 (566 PA’s) this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .707 — 88th Percentile.
Kyle Bradish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .145 (25 Total Bases / 173 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .308 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (212/406) against Tanner Houck since last season — tied for 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (127/243) against Tanner Houck this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 27% (23/85) against Tanner Houck with two-strikes this season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (64/106) against Tanner Houck’s fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 53-40 (.570) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Orioles are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 53-33 (.616) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Orioles are 49-9 (.845) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are 59-2 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Red Sox are just 14-21 (.400) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Red Sox are 42-29 (.592) after a win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Red Sox are just 13-121 (.097) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .131.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 183-115 (.610) against the run line (13.6% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are 18-6 (.750) against the run line (42.5% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Orioles are 98-53 (.649) against the run line (17.3% ROI) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Orioles are 81-46 (.628) against the run line (18.0% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .374 (632 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Red Sox are batting .315 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .531 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Red Sox are batting .298 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 182 of 2,688 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 54 of 504 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in late innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
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